Short Report: Amendment Referendum Exit Poll

Based on the current exit poll results, Question 1 is expected to narrowly pass, while Question 2 is expected to fail. Note that a 2/3 (66.6%) majority is needed for either to pass.

Looking closer at the data, we can see the following trends:

Question 1

• Among members of the SDPB coalition and aligned independents, Question 1 has ~73% support, just barely above the 66.6% needed to pass.
• As for members of the Unity coalition and aligned independents, support for Question 1 is much stronger at ~86%, well above the threshold for passage.
• When considering all independents and members of small parties, Question 1 has 60% support, indicating that this group is not as interested in expanding the Senate (at least in this manner) as the main coalitions are. This is likely due to them not having the level of support that the large parties and blocs have.
  

Question 2

• The SDPB and aligned independents are nearly split in half over whether to pass Question 2, with ~55% voting against it.
• The Unity coalition and aligned independents, however, are strongly against Question 2, with ~86% voting against it, mirroring the percentage of votes in favor of Question 1.
• In contrast to both major coalitions, independents and small parties voted overwhelmingly in favor of Question 2, with 70% supporting the amendment. This points to a distinction between independents and party members: independent candidates stand to gain the most from this since, if a popular independent just misses out on a seat and a seat ends up vacant, they could have a chance to take that seat for the rest of the term. This is in contrast to a party list system which would guarantee vacant seats to members of the party whose seat was vacated.

Finally, here is the breakdown of the party alignment of independents who voted in the poll: